Situation Briefing
Rolling geopolitical briefing tracking events relevant to predictions made across the lecture corpus. Updated daily; prediction scoring runs monthly.
Daily Situation Log
Most recent first
2026-03-15
Hormuz
Iran
India
Turkey
Shipping
Iran shifts from total blockade to selective passage at Hormuz. Two Indian LPG carriers (Shivalik, Nanda Devi — 92,712 metric tons combined) crossed safely with Indian Navy escort. Turkey also confirmed passage for a Turkish ship. IRGC navy chief says strait 'not militarily closed, merely under control.'
- Iran's policy: ships from US, Israel, and 'their allies' barred; 'friendly' nations allowed
- India's FM Jaishankar in direct talks with Iran's Araghchi on passage
- Saudi oil tanker with 1M barrels destined for India also reportedly allowed through
- IRGC Deputy FM: 'Countries that joined the aggression should not benefit from safe passage'
Prediction Impact
Selective blockade is a more nuanced outcome than the total closure Jiang discussed — Iran is weaponizing access diplomatically, not just militarily.
Source: Al Jazeera, India TV News, Daily Sabah, Middle East Monitor
2026-03-15
Iran
US
Coalition
Trump calls on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and UK to send warships to help reopen Strait of Hormuz. USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship and 2,500 Marines ordered to the region. Experts question whether the administration had a plan for Hormuz closure.
- Three US carrier strike groups already deployed (Lincoln, Ford, G.H.W. Bush)
- Trump: US will 'bomb hell out of Iran's shoreline' if attacks on strait continue
- No country has yet publicly committed ships to Trump's proposed coalition
- Analysts note the call exposes the gap between military capability and commercial deterrence
Prediction Impact
Jiang predicted the US would struggle with Hormuz — the need to recruit a multilateral coalition to reopen a strait the US Navy cannot secure unilaterally for commercial traffic supports his thesis.
Source: Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, Fortune, Axios, Washington Examiner
2026-03-15
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Gulf
Oman
Saudi Arabia intercepted 6 Iranian ballistic missiles targeting al-Kharj and destroyed 3 drones over the Eastern Province. Qatar intercepted an incoming missile. Two killed in Oman by Iranian drones — first Omani fatalities of the war.
- Iran previously targeted Saudi Arabia with 50 drones in a single wave (Mar 13)
- Saudi had intercepted 48 drones and 31 drones/3 missiles in earlier waves
- Oman had been largely spared due to its mediator role — two dead marks escalation
- Saudi-Iran rapprochement under severe strain but diplomatic channels remain open
Prediction Impact
Jiang emphasized Iran would strike across the Gulf — confirmed. Saudi-Iran rapprochement has not collapsed despite sustained attacks, contrary to expectations of immediate rupture.
Source: Euronews, Al Jazeera, The National, IranWire
2026-03-15
Lebanon
Israel
Hezbollah
Lebanon death toll reaches 773 killed and 1,933 wounded since Israel resumed strikes on March 2. Israel killed 12 medics at a health center in Burj Qalaouiyah. 800,000+ displaced. Israel claims it killed 5 senior IRGC Quds Force commanders in Beirut.
- Israel has conducted ~1,100 strikes on Lebanon since Feb 28
- Hezbollah firing 100+ rockets in single barrages coordinated with Iranian missile attacks
- Israel threatened 'Gaza-scale devastation' and destroyed a bridge in Lebanon
- UNIFIL recorded 210+ Hezbollah missiles fired into Israel since Mar 2
Source: Al Jazeera, Washington Post, CNN, NPR
2026-03-15
North Korea
South Korea
US
North Korea fired 10+ ballistic missiles into the East Sea from the Sunan area (~350km range), its first launch since January 27. Timed to coincide with Freedom Shield US-South Korea exercises (Mar 9-19).
- Kim Yo Jong accused US and South Korea of 'destroying the stability of East Asia'
- South Korea condemned as violation of UNSC resolutions, called for immediate halt
- North Korea also stepped up anti-US rhetoric in response to Iran strikes
- 38 North analysis: DPRK using Iran war moment to assert regional presence
Prediction Impact
DPRK exploiting US focus on Iran to test boundaries — consistent with Jiang's broader thesis about US overextension enabling adversary action elsewhere.
Source: Seoul Economic Daily, Washington Post, Al Jazeera, 38 North
2026-03-15
US
China
Trade
Taiwan
US-China trade chiefs (Bessent, Greer, He Lifeng) meeting in Paris this weekend to prepare agenda for Trump-Xi summit. Topics include Boeing purchases, soybeans, Taiwan, and fentanyl tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court.
- US-Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade signed Feb 12 — Taiwan to buy $84.8B in US goods (LNG, aircraft, power equipment) through 2029
- Tariffs lowered to 15% on Taiwan in exchange for near-elimination of tariffs on US goods
- China condemned the deal, saying it would 'drain Taiwan's economic interests'
- China has escalated drone operations against Taiwan in recent weeks
Source: Bloomberg, PBS, SCMP, CNBC, USTR
2026-03-15
Venezuela
Trial
Maduro's next court date delayed from March 17 to March 26. Alliance for Global Justice organizing protests at federal courthouse.
- Delay announced on Feb 17
- Maduro remains detained at MDC-Brooklyn
- Faces narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges
Source: Alliance for Global Justice, DOJ filing
2026-03-14
Iran
Turkey
Turkey confirms third Iranian ballistic missile intercepted by NATO air defenses in the Eastern Mediterranean. FM Fidan warned Iran 'next time, Turkey will respond in kind.' NATO Secretary General Rutte says Article 5 not under consideration.
- All three missiles (Mar 4, 9, 13) reportedly aimed at Incirlik Air Base area
- Iran denies intentional targeting, cites 'technical anomaly'
- Turkey running diplomatic back-channel between Washington and Tehran
Prediction Impact
Jiang predicted US would get 'trapped' in Iran — the war is expanding to hit NATO member Turkey, but Turkey is not escalating. Regional containment holding so far.
Source: Al Jazeera, CNBC, Washington Times
2026-03-13
Cuba
US
Cuban President Diaz-Canel confirms secret negotiations with the US. Secretary of State Rubio has led at least half a dozen meetings with Cuban representatives.
- White House says Trump believes a deal 'could be done easily'
- Cuba warns agreement 'will take time'
- Comes amid 90% fuel import cutoff following Venezuela operation
Source: Washington Post, ABC News, Fox News
2026-03-12
Hormuz
Shipping
Three more ships struck in Persian Gulf. Oil closes above $100 for second consecutive day at $103.14. IEA authorized record 400M barrel strategic reserve release.
- Brent peaked at $126/bbl earlier in the week
- Markets doubt reserve release will provide lasting relief
- Fortune: 'Biggest oil supply disruption in history'
Prediction Impact
Jiang predicted Hormuz blockade would be devastating — confirmed. Oil prices have not yet hit the $200 IRGC projection.
Source: CNBC, CNN, Fortune, IEA
2026-03-11
Hormuz
Thailand
Shipping
IRGC struck Thailand-flagged bulk carrier MV Mayuree Naree in Strait of Hormuz. 3 crew missing, 20 rescued. At least three commercial vessels attacked on this day alone.
- Ship was sailing in ballast from UAE to India
- Two oil tankers also attacked by Iranian drone boat off Basra, Iraq — 1+ crew killed
- Thailand summoned Iran's ambassador, demanded apology
- IRGC claimed ship ignored 'warnings'
Prediction Impact
War expanding to hit neutral countries' shipping — Thailand has no involvement in the conflict.
Source: CBS News, Bloomberg, USNI News, Nation Thailand
2026-03-11
Venezuela
US
US formally recognized Delcy Rodriguez as 'sole' head of state of Venezuela via court filing. Opposition leader Machado welcomed the recognition.
Source: Bloomberg, ColombiaOne, UPI
2026-03-09
Iran
Succession
Mojtaba Khamenei announced as new Supreme Leader of Iran, elected by Assembly of Experts under significant IRGC pressure.
- Assembly of Experts election ran March 3-8
- Mojtaba is son of assassinated Ali Khamenei
- Stated Hormuz blockade must continue
Prediction Impact
Jiang predicted Khamenei assassination — confirmed. Dynastic succession was not predicted.
Source: Al Jazeera, Reuters
2026-03-05
Venezuela
US
US and Venezuela agreed to re-establish diplomatic and consular relations, severed since 2019. Embassies to reopen.
Source: US State Department
2026-03-04
Hormuz
Gulf
By this date, Iran had launched 189 ballistic missiles, 941 drones, and 3 cruise missiles against the UAE alone. All major Gulf states reporting damage to energy infrastructure.
- UAE ADNOC Ruwais refinery (922K bbl/day) shut down after drone strike
- Dubai International Airport struck — evacuation ordered
- Major maritime insurers cancelled war risk cover for Gulf transit
Prediction Impact
Scale of Iranian retaliation across Gulf states exceeds what most analyses predicted. Jiang's framing of Iran as formidable adversary partially vindicated.
Source: Al Jazeera, CNBC, TIME
2026-03-02
Hormuz
Qatar
Energy
QatarEnergy halted all gas production after Iranian strikes on gas facilities. IRGC declares Strait of Hormuz closed. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter.
- Force majeure declared on all gas contracts March 4
- Qatar PM called attacks 'a big sense of betrayal'
- European natural gas prices nearly doubled
Prediction Impact
Jiang predicted Hormuz closure — confirmed. Qatar gas halt is a major escalation with global consequences he specifically discussed.
Source: Al Jazeera, CNBC
2026-02-28
Iran
Israel
US
US and Israel launched ~900 strikes in 12 hours on Iran. Supreme Leader Khamenei assassinated in Tehran. Iran retaliates across 9+ countries. IRGC begins Hormuz blockade.
- At least 1,444 killed, 18,551 injured in Iran (Health Ministry figures)
- Missile struck a girls' school in Minab, killing ~170
- Iran responded with 500+ missiles and ~2,000 drones
Prediction Impact
Jiang predicted US-Israel war on Iran, Khamenei assassination, and Hormuz blockade — all confirmed on this single day.
Source: Multiple (Al Jazeera, BBC, Reuters, NPR, CNN)
Active Theatres
Regions under active monitoring
Iran / Strait of Hormuz
active war
Day 15 of US-Israel air campaign. Israel has conducted ~7,600 strikes on Iran and ~1,100 on Lebanon since Feb 28. Iran's selective blockade of Hormuz continues — IRGC says strait 'not militarily closed, merely under control,' allowing passage for India and Turkey while barring US/Western-allied ships. Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and UK to send warships to reopen Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted 6 Iranian ballistic missiles and 3 drones on Mar 14. Brent crude at $103.14. USS Tripoli + 2,500 Marines en route.
Iran
Israel
Bahrain
Kuwait
Qatar
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Oman
Iraq
Jordan
Turkey
Cyprus
Azerbaijan
Lebanon
India
Russia-Ukraine War
grinding war
Russia holds ~20% of Ukraine. February 2026 was first month since 2024 when Ukraine regained more territory than it lost. Russia lost 57 sq mi (Feb 10–Mar 10) vs 182 sq mi gained in prior 4 weeks. Fighting concentrated around Kostiantynivka. UK/France committed peacekeeping troops in principle; Russia rejects. Peace talks stalled.
Russia
Ukraine
Latin America — Venezuela / Cuba / Colombia
in flux
Maduro trial delayed to March 26 (from Mar 17). Rodriguez acting president — oil reform, amnesty. US recognized Rodriguez Mar 11. Cuba in energy crisis (90% fuel cutoff); Diaz-Canel says no oil shipments in three months, widespread power cuts. Secret US-Cuba talks confirmed Mar 13. Colombia in economic emergency; peace process collapsed.
Venezuela
Cuba
Colombia
US-China Trade
fragile truce
Trade chiefs Bessent, Greer, and He Lifeng meeting in Paris mid-March to prepare for Trump-Xi summit. Agenda includes Boeing purchases, soybeans, Taiwan, fentanyl tariffs. US-Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade signed Feb 12 ($84.8B in purchases); China condemned it. Tariffs at 10% under one-year extension. Relationship adversarial but communicating.
United States
China
Taiwan
East Asia — DPRK / Korean Peninsula
elevated risk
North Korea fired 10+ ballistic missiles into East Sea on Mar 14 (~350km range) during Freedom Shield US-South Korea exercises (Mar 9-19). First launch since Jan 27. Kim Yo Jong warned of 'unimaginably terrible consequences.' Seoul condemned as UNSC violation. Russia-DPRK alliance deepened; 12,000 DPRK troops in Russia.
North Korea
South Korea
Japan
Key Metrics
Tracked indicators
| Indicator | Value | Change | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude ($/bbl) | $103.14 | +47% | 2026-03-14 |
| Hormuz Tanker Traffic | selective | -99% (Western); limited passage (India/Turkey) | 2026-03-15 |
| US Military KIA (Iran theatre) | 17 | +6 (Iraq plane crash Mar 13) | 2026-03-14 |
| Iran Civilian Casualties | 1,444+ | ongoing | 2026-03-15 |
| Lebanon Casualties (since Mar 2) | 773 killed / 1,933 wounded | 800,000+ displaced | 2026-03-14 |
| Ships Trapped in Gulf | ~750 | — | 2026-03-12 |
| Qatar Gas Production | 0 (halted) | -100% | 2026-03-02 |
| Ukraine Territory Occupied | ~20% | Ukraine regaining (Feb first net gain since 2024) | 2026-03-15 |
| Cuba Fuel Imports | -90% | no shipments in 3 months per Diaz-Canel | 2026-03-13 |